Deployment capability
who can build and fix what.
Capital on the line
We are building the index for industrial automation.
Talk to your Cenotian partnerApproach
Others write loans. We underwrite the deployment of physical AI.
The gap between a signed order and a running line has never been priced. No instrument reaches it. The integrator pays for terms because terms win deals they would otherwise lose. That is the yield.
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Data
The dataset the category never had.
Six schema, held on every counterparty and every project - the records the category never kept.
Contract
the terms actually signed.
Quote line items
what each line really costs.
Assets
every machine, valued weekly.
Financial
their accounts, ten years back.
Telemetry
coming soon.
Assets
1,500
Sources tracked
5,000
OEMs
80+
Types of robot
50+
Others just fund the machine because it's the only value they can see. The rest of the deployment is engineering, software, integration and commissioning. We back all of it.
Technology
The engine physical AI never had.
- 01
Pagliacci
Reads the project. Their components, their system, their line and floor, their objectives - technically, commercially, contractually and temporally.
- 02
Maestro
Prices the full frontier, simulating tailored deal structures for every deployment.
- 03
Opera
Shapes the one that gets signed.
Origination
Priced before it is ever a deal.
Origination runs through the integrators who control access to the deployment.
Day-zero capital, whole-project underwriting and deal registration are why the term sheet is never shopped. No auction, no broker list, no page of comparable offers.
The same two documents open every deal and the same ten-page analysis comes back: what we can do, what we would need, where the risk sits. The structure is identical on every one, so volume compounds without diluting the underwriting.
Cenotian residual value and liquidity index
The first depreciation curve for physical AI.
Residual value as a percentage of new against age in years. The curve falls from 100% at age zero to about 18% at eight years, steeply over the first two years and shallowly after four.
100%
50%
0
4
8 years
Residual, % of new
real transactions, written back weekly
one anonymized OEM family, timestamped to last read
Per OEM and SKU.
Residual percent of new, over age, first derivative tracked weekly. A rolling-over residual moves quarters before new pricing does.
Disambiguated by price.
Rising listings with falling prices signal a glut. With stable prices, a healthy fleet refresh.
Calibrated against money that changed hands.
As deals season, realized recoveries write back into the curve. Transactions, not scrapes.
Underwriting
Book performance
Our book is marked against the curve. Flow moves ahead of filings.
01
Signed orders only.
Nothing advanced against a forecast.
02
Escrowed milestones.
Money releases against tests set before the start.
03
Acceptance in the contract.
After the test passes, payment is unconditional.
04
Bankruptcy-remote vehicle.
The book stands apart from any counterparty.
05
Documented step-in.
A stalled build gets finished, not recovered.
Sizing
Granular by design.
Tickets start at $100K and graduate to $10M+. Concentration limits by jurisdiction, industry and OEM are written into the mandate.
$100-500K
$500-1M
$1M-10M
$10M+
Support
Institutional support
